SYSTEM DYNAMICS OF PEAK PROJECTION COVID-19 IN INDONESIA

  • Irman Firmansyah System Dynamic Center
  • Bambang Pramudya IPB University
  • Pipin Noviati Sadikin System Dynamic Center
Keywords: COVID-19, System Dynamics, Systems Thinking, Simulation, Modelling

Abstract

Since the emergence of Corona Virus 2019, COVID-19, which was first discovered in December 2019 in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, it has been determined as a pandemic by the World Health Organization because this plague that has spread out in a short period of time throughout the world is infectious. In Indonesia itself, this has started from March 2, 2020 and within a month there has been a significant number of cases, in which the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 was 8,882 people. There were 743 people who died, or the death rate was 8.34%, which is spread 34 provinces or there is 100% of provinces which have confirmed COVID-19 cases. The purpose of this study was to analyze the peak projection COVID-19 in Indonesia. The system dynamics projection is strengthened by the choice of scenarios to see the projection, so that it is possible to know the possibility of COVID-19 cases in Business As Usual, Moderate, Optimistic and even uncontrolled conditions. In Business As Usual condition, it is estimated that the number of cases with a maximum point of around 15,000 cases and the cases will reach the peak on day 80th to 110th, and then the case will start to slowdown. In the uncontrolled condition, it is estimated that the number of cases with a maximum point of around 27,000-30,000, which reaches its peak on day 100-120. This is because new constants are increasing in other regions. Application of moderate conditions with precautionary calls, implementation of health protocols including healthy living movement, social distancing, disinfectant spraying, adequacy of medical devices and health facilities, implementation of Stay At Home or Work From Home can delay the maximum number of cases around 9.000 and its peak is on the day 90th, after that the cases will decline slowly.

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Published
2020-06-30